AI’s Biggest Wins Aren’t Chatbots

TL;DR

AI's biggest wins are systems like AlphaFold and GraphCast that outpace experts in drug research, cancer screening and weather forecasting.

  • AlphaFold predicted nearly every protein
  • AI screening found 29% more cancers
  • GraphCast won on over 90% of measures

Most debate about AI focuses on the chat window. Ask a critic what the technology does, and the answer usually stops at chatbots like ChatGPT or Claude. Yet the results with the longest reach turn up far from any chat window, in a drug pipeline, a cancer ward and an evacuation order. Behind each is an AI system that outpaces the experts it supports.

A protein folds into a complex 3D shape, and that shape decides what the protein does in the body and where a drug might attach. Working out a single structure in the lab took months or years, and across the field’s whole history researchers had solved roughly 200,000.

Then AlphaFold, from Google’s AI lab DeepMind, won the contest the field uses to test structure predictions, with shapes as accurate as lab experiments. The lab went on to release predictions for more than 200 million proteins, close to every one known to science, each produced in minutes. The full set is free in an open database, and researchers in 190 countries use it in drug discovery and disease research.

Cancer screening shows the same pattern inside a clinic. A Swedish trial randomly split more than 105,000 women into two groups. One group had its mammograms read with AI support. The other followed the European standard, with two radiologists checking every scan. The software sorted the images and flagged suspect areas, but a radiologist still made every decision to call a woman back.

Screening with AI support found 29% more cancers. False positives, which send healthy women back for more tests and sometimes a biopsy, did not rise.

Forecasting the weather carries the highest human stakes of the three. A separate DeepMind system, GraphCast, produces 10-day global forecasts in under a minute, where traditional models need hours of supercomputer time for the same job.

Tested against the gold-standard model run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, GraphCast was more accurate on over 90% of 1,380 weather measures. Its sharper predictions of severe weather, including the paths of tropical cyclones, give officials earlier warning to order evacuations. DeepMind released the code, and forecasting agencies, among them the European centre that runs the gold-standard model, have run it live.

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AI’s Biggest Wins Aren’t Chatbots | Chief AI Leader